Archive for ‘Orlando Magic’

March 8, 2011

An Additional Opinion on the MVP Race: Dwight Howard

by Jeeves

I realize that talking about the MVP race is hardly groundbreaking blogging, but it is something that I want to address as the NBA season enters its last quarter. If I had it my way, the league’s MVP would simply be the best player in the league. Such a simple pronouncement takes out a lot of the opaqueness of the award and sets is up, in a historical sense, as a great barometer of whom, at any point, was amongst the best in the league. That isn’t to say that the MVP doesn’t do that now, (it does to a certain degree), but it’s often muddled by other factors. Wes Unseld was a great player; he’s a hall of famer. I don’t, however, think that he was ever amongst the very best players in the league, yet he won an MVP award. He won due to other vaguer factors that people often attribute to the award, such as which player if removed from his current team would see his team fall the farthest. I’m not trying to say one way or another if that’s the right way to look at the MVP, because there is no right way. The rules governing the voting aren’t exactly clear.

So with that at mind, I want to take a look at each MVP candidate through the prism, that it seems, most sports writers look through. That means I’ll take equal parts sheer basketball awesomeness, ability to raise teammates play, and irreplaceability (new word!) on their team. I’ll also take into account general development in comparison to past years, while de-emphasizing W-L record.

As I see things today, if I had a ballot, I would go:

1) Dwight Howard

2) Dirk Nowitzki

3) Derrick Rose

4) Lebron James

Each day this week, I’ll take a look at a different candidate, starting from the top and working my way down:

1. Dwight Howard

In basketball, it seems that people put about 70% of the emphasis on offense. If I afforded that same emphasis to my analysis, Howard would still be amongst the MVP candidates but certainly not at the top. The way I see it, defense is truly half of the game, therefore it should be treated as such when evaluating a player on their individual production. Howard is probably the premier defensive force in the league. He’s the two-time and by the end of the season will likely be the three-time Defensive Player of the Year. I realize past awards don’t have any bearing on current awards (at least they shouldn’t, ahem, writers tired of giving Michael Jordan the MVP), but it does corroborate my thoughts on Howard’s defense in a traditional sense. There are some advanced statistics that try to quantify defensive contributions that also support my argument that Howard is the best defender in the league. He towers over the competition in defensive win shares, which is a statistic that tries to quantify how many wins through the current season a player’s defense has contributed. Howard is currently at 5.8 with Kevin Garnett in second at 4.2. (To understand how large that gap is, the difference between KG in second at 4.2 and Al Horford who ranks twentieth with 3.1 win shares is only 1.1). He’s dominating on the defensive end as always; his team is wholly dependent upon him. He typically sees the floor with three to four perimeter based players of varying defensive reputations, from indifferent (Gilbert Arenas) to liability (Hedo Turkoglu) to decent (Brandon Bass). Despite those around him, the Magic give up the 5th fewest amount of pts per game.

Defense isn’t the only place where Dwight is producing. He’s always put up nice numbers on the offensive end, but this year he’s really stepped it up a notch. His scoring is up nearly 5pts to 23.1 ppg, which is a pretty fantastic jump in production. He’s also been able to extend his range, upping his shots from 3-9 feet by 1.2 shots while increasing his shooting percentage from that range. Even with this jump, he’s remained as proficient as always from the field (60%). He’s even upped his rebound totals by .7 to 13.9 a game.

He even rates out well when looking at the team aspect of this all. There’s no doubt, at all, that his team would suffer drastically without him; they are, after all, built around his unique talents. His teammates are pretty good, contrary to some of the groundswell these days purporting them to be on the level of the 2001 76ers’ supporting cast, but they are not world beaters. Of the 4 MVP contenders I have ranked, I’d say his supporting cast is the weakest (with more weight placed on fellow starters than end of the bench).

The totality of Dwight’s season puts him in the driver’s seat, in my eyes, for the moment.  I still have to qualify my thoughts by saying for the moment. There’s a big ugly black mark on his resume; he has racked up an obscene number of technical fouls. He’s had so many that he tripped the automatic suspension barrier and had to miss Monday’s game. From here on out, every other technical earns him a one game suspension. His team is currently fighting for playoff seeding, so if he continues to get T’d up and continues to miss games, I’d have no recourse but to penalize him.

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February 17, 2011

The NBA All-Star Player Draft

by Jeeves

The NBA All-Star break is fast approaching (the Lakers, it seems, have been on break for a little while), which got me thinking, what would happen if the NBA had a player draft for the ASG, like the NHL did?

Before we get to how I think things would play out, here are some things to keep in mind.

The game, this year, is in Los Angeles, therefore, I’m choosing Kobe and Blake Griffin as the two captains. If the game was in say, Vegas again, I’d probably go with Durant and Lebron as the captains as they play the same positions and there’s the whole super humble vs super ego angle. Since it is LA, I thought it would be nice to have the two “home teams” provide the captains. Second, I’m working under the assumption that there’s something actually on the line here that would make all the players desperately want to win, other than just pride. Basically before the draft, everyone is programmed with Kobe’s pathological desire to win. I’m also giving Kobe top pick since LA is more his town than Blake’s…for now. Also, on the playground we always played the first captain gets the choice of first pick or second two.

Kobe – Pick 1 – Dwight Howard

Kobe knows that defense wins championships games. Dwight offers great defense and pretty damn good offense down low. Some probably think the pick here would be Lebron, but Kobe knows that he duplicates some of Lebron’s skill set.

Blake – Pick 1 – Lebron James

No brainer here. Lebron is the best player in the NBA in my books. This team also has the die cast for a sick display of dunking and alley-oops, which leads to…

Blake – Pick 2 – Chris Paul

There’s no point forward on this team. Paul will be the one throwing oops to Bron Bron and Griffin. The former undisputed top PG gets bragging rights in this draft, though I personally wouldn’t rank him first.

Kobe – Pick 2 – Kevin Durant

Kobe picks another wing scorer, one that’s young enough and humble enough to clash with him personality-wise on the court.

Blake – Pick 3 – Dwyane Wade

With Lebron in his ear, Blake chooses Wade to round out his starting back court. A Wade, Lebron, Griffin trio is a Big Three worth much more hype than the Big 2.5 of Wade, Bosh, Lebron.

Kobe – Pick 3 – Derrick Rose

Kobe goes with Rose to run the point. I think of this writing, Rose is the best PG in the league (a two legged Paul would be better, but since he only has one, it’s Rose). Rose provides the whole package at the 1. Drive and kick ability, a great mid range game, 3-pt range, pretty good defense, etc.

Blake –  Pick 4 – Pau Gasol

The Griffin’s need a center and Gasol fits that role beautifully. It’ll set up an interesting Kobe vs. Pau dynamic.

Kobe – Pick 4 – Dirk Nowitzki

Kobe goes with the stretch four option here. It’ll bring a nice dynamic to the team. Nowitzki can play in the post with Dwight or out near the 3pt line to open up driving lanes for Rose. Plus there’s no stopping he’s awkward fallaway. Dirk is secretly one of my top-5 favorite players in the league.

Blake – Pick 5 – Carmelo Anthony

Blake grabs a volume scorer to be the first man off the bench. He can come in at SF and allow LBJ to slide to PF or SG to create some matchup nightmares.

Kobe – Pick 5 – Al Horford

Blake gave Dirk and the Mavs some issues in their second meeting of the season, so they go with Horford who offers more defense than Amare and more athleticism than Duncan. This pick is a bit of a reach in terms of pure talent, but it’s a value pick.

Blake – Pick 6 – Deron Williams

Unfortunately there’s no Paul vs Williams battle. Williams provides size to perhaps bother Rose if he blows by Paul with consistency.

Kobe – Pick 6 – Rajon Rondo

He’s kind of made for All-Star games in the sense of his pass first mentality. When Team Kobe gets a bunch of scorers on the court, they’ll be paired with Rondo who’ll run the offense beautifully.

Blake – Pick 7 – Chris Bosh

The Miami trio are reunited in this scenario. He provides some good jump shooting and is already used to not being the top dog.

Kobe – Pick 7 – Paul Pierce

As much as Kobe would like to play the whole game, he’ll need to be spelled at some point. Pierce can slide over to SG as well as provide some good defense on Lebron. Team Kobe officially changes its name to Team Awkward Fallaways.

Blake – Pick 8 – Ray Allen

The Griffins jump on Ray’s ability to shoot the trey and prevent Allen and Pierce from pairing up again.

Kobe – Pick 8 – Kevin Garnett

The run of Celtics is complete. KG gets picked for defensive ferocity. The pick by need here would be Manu, but Kobe knows that he can sit on him as Blake doesn’t have a need for Manu.

Blake – Pick 9 – Amare Stoudemire

Amare gives team Blake a bit more size down low.

Kobe – Pick 9 – Tim Duncan

Value pick here. Duncan won’t necessarily need to play heavy minutes. Plus, he can take it to the bank.

Blake – Pick 10 – Russell Westbrook

I think the team of athletic freaks needs one more athletic freak.

Kobe – Pick 10 – Manu Ginobili

Kobe cashes in on the Ginobili pick. Can’t afford to wait any longer on him. Plus, he can take it to the bank, too.

Blake – Pick 11 – Kevin Love

Glue guy. Rebounding. Love and Westbrook perhaps get to relive some UCLA magic.

Kobe – Pick 11- Joe Johnson

Size and shooting on the outside…and the only guy left on the board.

So the teams look like this:

Team Kobe Starters:

Dwight Howard, Dirk Nowitzki, Kevin Durant, Kobe Bryant, Derrick Rose

Team Blake Starters:

Pau Gasol, Blake Griffin, Lebron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Paul

Team Kobe Bench:

Horford, Rondo, Pierce, Garnett, Duncan, Ginobili, Johnson

Team Blake Bench:

Anthony, Williams, Bosh, Allen, Stoudemire, Westbrook, Love

February 10, 2011

Trade-a-palooza: Eastern Conference

by Jeeves

The NBA’s trade deadline is fast approaching. In the next couple weeks, leading up to the 24th, teams positioned for the playoffs will look to strengthen their squads while other teams will try and stockpile assets and rid themselves of salary. I’ve gone ahead and brainstormed some possible trades so check them out below.

A few things to note:

I focused on trades between playoff contenders and non-contenders. It’s hard to come up with a trade where two teams change up their rotations while still trying to make the playoffs. This also means that if I made a trade between a contender and a fringe contender (eg Boston and Indiana) or two fringe contenders I made the assumption one team was gearing up for the stretch run while the other was willing to punt for salary relief/assets. I also only looked at two team trades; I didn’t want to get too fancy. So feel free to dismiss these trades or to propose better ones; I’m all ears. I’ve put *** by the trades I particularly liked.

Celtics

Anthony Parker or Jamario Moon for Marquis Daniels and Semih Erden

The Celtics do not have a lot of assets, so they’re a tough team to work a trade for. One thing that they do need is a back-up SF now that Daniels is out with his spinal cord bruise. The Cavs do this because at this point they are desperate for talent and Erden is fringey enough to take a look at. Plus the Celts and Cavs could do this trade with the understanding that the Cavs buy-out Daniels when he’s healthy and he can then just resign with the Celtics.

***Tracy McGrady and Ben Wallace for Marquis Daniels and Semih Erden

This trade gives the Celtics a little more roster flexibility. They can drop T-Mac in at PG or SF and Wallace gives them another big body to throw at Dwight. The Pistons do this to dump a little salary and pick up Erden. The question is, are the Celtics worried about T-Mac and his inability to advance past the 1st round? Yah, probably not.

James Posey for Jermaine O’Neal and Erden

I would love for this to happen just so we can get O’Neal back on the Pacers and Posey back on the Celtics. I will always associate those two players with those two teams. Again, Boston needs a small forward and it’s possible that management thinks Posey can find the effectiveness he’s lost since leaving Boston. Indy does this for the same reason as the Detroit trade above. Save some cash and get Erden. Plus there’s always the chance that O’Neal is done and his contract gets covered by insurance.

Grant Hill for Marquis Daniels and  Semih Erden

This would be the best trade for the Celtics. If it were to happen, it means that Phoenix could not find a more attractive offer elsewhere. Suns do this to try to get some value (Erden) out of Hill’s expiring contract, and as a way to give him a shot at a title.

Knicks

Nazr Mohammed and Eduardo Najera for Eddy Curry

I’m working this trade from the view point that the Knicks want to do as much damage as possible in this year’s playoffs. To do that, they need to get some size in the middle to help out Amare. Mohammed (and Najera for that matter) provide the size they need. This would preclude them from getting Melo in the off-season since only Mohammed’s contract expires, and therefore a reason why this trade probably wouldn’t happen, but it does make them better in the near term. Najera’s salary also comes off the books in time to go after Chris Paul and Dwight Howard, so that’s a plus. The Bobcats take on extra salary for the end of this season, but then see Curry’s larger salary come off of the books. MJ is trying to save money in Charlotte while also squeezing out a playoff appearance; this trade will achieve the former.

Jeff Foster and Dahntay Jones for Curry

The same reasoning as above can be carried down here, except instead of Najera at power forward you get Jones a shooting guard. He could actually play some back up minutes as nobody behind Fields (on the ESPN depth chart) has a pulse. This move doesn’t do much for Indy except save $2.5 mil next season. Since Indiana is going for the playoffs it probably wouldn’t happen, but remember I’m working under the premise that one team is going for it while the other team in the trade is calling it quits.

***Chris Kaman for Curry

This trade is perhaps the most interesting one that I’ve proposed so far. Kaman (when he gets healthy) provides a massive improvement for the Knicks. His large salary also clears in time for the 2012 free agent class of Paul and Howard. The Clippers on the other hand get a massive expiring which could allow them to enter the Melo sweepstakes if they feel so inclined. Worst comes to worst, Donald Sterling saves some money and we all know he loves doing that.

***Beno Udrih, Samuel Dalembert, Jermaine Taylor for Raymond Felton and Curry

This is kind of a jackpot for New York; let me explain. Beno represents an upgrade (to me) at PG. He shoots a much better percentage and though his assists are low, but I’m sure in D’Antoni’s offense those numbers will go up. Dalembert is an obvious upgrade over Mozgov at center. Dalembert is also a larger expiring contract than Eddy Curry which will give them that much more room for Melo. Beno’s salary plus Taylor’s salary both expire by 2012 and add up to more than Felton’s salary meaning if they whiff on Melo they can try again in 2012. The Kings end of this trade is a bit iffier. New York would have to throw in some sort of pick to make it worthwhile, which means the Kings would get their, I dunno, 2020 draft pick. I guess the fact of the matter is they save money, in terms of salary, this season and next season by doing this trade, which is a bit of a boon as the Maloof’s are in financial trouble.

76ers

Nazr Mohammed and Stephen Jackson for Jason Kapono and Andres Nocioni

While the Sixers have found some success playing a small lineup with Brand at center, they still need the size Mohammed offers when they play some of the larger teams in the league. They could also use an upgrade at SG as they have Jodie Meeks starting. The Bobcats don’t get much in terms of talent in this trade; Kapono has barely played and Noc is a nice effort guy who can swing between the forward positions. It does get them out of Captain Jack’s 3-year contract, which saves them some coin. The 76ers are already fairly tied up with Brand and Iguodala’s contract, so I don’t see picking up Jackson as ruining all that much flexibility. Plus, like I said, I’m looking near term rather than long term.

Bulls

Anthony Morrow for Brian Scalabrine, JJ, Bogans, (pick)

Plain and simple, the Bulls need a SG. It’s sad because Brewer and Korver aren’t terrible, but Thibs for some reason insists on starting Bogans who blows, plain and simple. Unfortunately, the Bulls don’t have much in the way of assets, at least one’s they’d be willing to give up. They need to hold onto Taj as Noah and Boozer haven’t been the picture’s of health in their careers so far. I think the Bulls value Asik more than others, so he doesn’t help. That leaves Bogans (who blows), James Johnson who has a rare blend of athleticism and size though is a project and two picks (their own and a lottery ticket from Charlotte). So in this instance, the Bulls offer their package which helps the Nets clear cap room if they change their minds about Melo. Morrow is the 2-guard with range that the Bulls need.

Courtney Lee and exception for Bogans, JJ, pick

Same story here. The Rockets do this to pick up the pick(s) as they continue to stockpile assets.

OJ Mayo for Scal, Bogans, JJ, (pick)

The Grizzlies just cut bait with Mayo and recoup a pick or two. It’s questionable whether the Bulls would take Mayo with his recent character issues. In the past, Bulls management has been unwilling to do so.

Pacers

Stephen Jackson for James Posey and Brandon Rush

So remember when I said, all these trades help one team in the playoff push and one team in salary relief/assets? Well this is another one of those. The Bobcats get out from that third year on Jackson’s contract and the Pacers get 2 SGs to play around with this year and have Jackson for when Dunleavy’s contract expires (end of this season).

***Ben Gordon and Tayshaun Prince for James Posey, Mike Dunleavy, and Paul George

This trade is exciting, I’m not going to lie. The Pacers now have a nice athletic rotation at SG/SF between Gordon, Prince, and Granger. If that’s too overwhelming, they can also flip Prince’s expiring to fill a greater need. Meanwhile, the Pistons get out from under Gordon’s contract. It would be one thing if he was their starter, but $11 million is too much money for 27 minutes a game. Dunleavy’s contract expires this year so the Pistons aren’t losing out by swapping Prince. As I said they kiss Gordon’s contract goodbye and they get Paul George who I like and think could be a good player.

Antohny Morrow, Travis Outlaw, Damion James, Ben Uzoh for TJ Ford and James Posey

There’s a lot in this trade. Morrow is an upgrade at SG for the Pacers. They perhaps can help Outlaw become productive again. James and Uzoh are just filler. Ford is a nice expiring for New Jersey and Posey’s two year deal is much more palatable than Outlaw’s 5-year deal.

***Leandro Barbosa for Ford

This is an expiring for expiring swap. Ford makes more which gets the Raptors that much more cap room; Barbosa is an upgrade for the Pacers.

Kirk Hinrich for Posey

The Wizards save some money over the next two years, while the Pacers get the better player. Both players contracts expire after next season.

Bucks

***Gerald Wallace and Boris Diaw for Michael Redd

The Bucks aren’t going anywhere anytime soon after all those contracts they handed out, so they might as well go all in to realize their ceiling as a middling playoff team. With that in mind, they trade Michael Redd’s massive expiring contract ($18 million). They get an upgrade at PF in Diaw and have a SG/SF rotation of Maggette, Wallace, and Salmons.

Antawn Jamison, Boobie Gibson, Exception for Michael Redd, Corey Magette

The Bucks get a big upgrade at PF and a nice back up in Gibson. The Cavs save a boatload of money in the near term and get back a player with a pulse. Magette become their best player, instantly and though his contract is 3 years, they end up saving money over that span by trading both Jamison and Gibson.

Troy Murphy and Anthony Morrow for Michael Redd

To be honest, I’m not sure how in love New Jersey is with Morrow which is why I keep including him in these trades, plus, he’s interesting. The Bucks get an upgrade at SG and Murphy may be able to contribute at PF. Murphy’s $11 mil deal is done at the end of the year so they still get some money off the books. The Nets on the other hand get Michael Redd’s Expiring Contract.

Elton Brand and Thad Young for Redd and CDR

Like I said before, the Bucks seem pretty locked in with all the contracts they gave out. This just solidifies them being locked in for the next 3 years. Brand’s fat contract and revived play will hugely upgrade PF, while Thad Young will provide solid rotation play. The Sixers get some breathing room under the cap and CDR because he’s a nice player. The Sixers may be upset about losing Young, but it’s probably worth it to be rid of Brand. His contract feels like a ticking time bomb to me.

Samuel Dalembert and Beno Udrih for Redd

Two upgrades for the Bucks and Redd saves the Kings so much money that the Maloof’s instantly blow half of the savings on a bender in Vegas.

Heat

No assets therefore no trades.

Hawks

Mo Williams for Mike Bibby and Jeff Teague, Mo Evans

The Hawks get an upgrade at the point while the Cavs save some money and get something interesting in the form of Jeff Teague

Magic

They have fat contracts that are basically untradeable, unless someone has a change of heart and desperately want Hedo.

Bobcats

It’s tough to find a trade that makes them better, sorry MJ

The Western Conference will come out in a day or two.

February 8, 2011

Have the Magic Fallen from the NBA’s Elite?

by Jeeves

Over the weekend the Orlando Magic lost at Boston which marked their 7th straight loss against a team with a winning record. The loss also brought their record down to 32-20 and has inspired fervent discussion whether it’s time to demote the Magic from the East’s top tier to its second tied. It’s certainly a frustrating time in Orlando; their recent stretch of play has them at 3-5 in their last 8 and 7-8 since their 9-game winning streak. Their poor form has dropped them below the Atlanta Hawks in the standings and has seemingly (operative word is seemingly) locked the Magic into either the 4th or 5th seed.

The question at hand is whether or not the Magic, in their current iteration, remain a legitimate title contender. Since the trades that brought over Jason Richardson, Hedo Turkoglu, Earl Clark, and Gilbert Arenas, the Magic have compiled a 16-10 record which is good for a .615 winning percentage. The Magic, coincidentally began the season 16-10 as well. This clip clearly pales in comparison to the 59-23 (.720 WL%) record the Magic compiled in each of the last two seasons. Clearly, the Magic aren’t playing up to their past standard, you don’t need me to tell you that. Now that we have established that fact, lets take a deeper look into the numbers to see why they are struggling and what we can expect in the future.

The first thing to note (and which greatly simplifies our comparisons) is that Orlando has maintained the same pace (qualitatively, speaking) over the last three years. This year, they average 92.1 possessions a game which nearly matches the 92.0 and 92.3 mark they put up in 09-10 (referred to as 2010 from here on out) and 08-09 (referred to as 2009 from here on out) respectively.  The table below sums up their offensive and defensive outputs over the last three years:

PPG Lg Avg Diff Opp. PPG Lg Avg Diff Score Margin
2011 100.1 99.3 0.8 94.7 99.3 4.6 5.4
2010 102.8 100.4 2.4 95.3 100.4 5.1 7.5
2009 101.0 100 1.0 94.4 100 5.6 5.6
2011 Post Trades 103.54 99.3 4.24 96.55 99.3 2.75 6.99
2011 Pre Trades 96.57 99.3 -2.73 92.85 99.3 6.45 3.72

(Note: I did not recalculate the league average values for before and after Orlando’s trades. I assumed it to be the same, which should only have a marginal effect on the analysis; this isn’t baseball after all)

If you take 2011, 2010, and 2009 all at face value, you would be absolutely lost as to why Orlando is struggling  so mightily this year. In all three instances, Orlando appears to be an elite defensive team with a decent offense. Taking 2011 as a whole, however, masks the two halves that have made up the Magic’s season, so far. Before the trades, the Magic were a defensive juggernaut ranking near the top of the league coupled with a very poor offense. After the trades those two profiles reversed; the Magic would now rate as a top-7 offensive team but only a top 10 defense. That isn’t to say that the Magic aren’t still a good defensive team, they are, but they no longer are elite. That eliteness on defense is what carried them in the past to their gaudy regular season records.

Even with the stark split of the stats between the pre-trade Magic and the post-trade Magic, the results, as mentioned before, are the exact same: 26-10. Removing random chance as a legitimate factor, I believe relative strength of schedule can explain this anomaly. Before the trade, the Magic played 11 teams with (current) winning records and 15 teams with (current) losing records. After their trades, that split is 13 and 13. 2 games doesn’t mark a huge difference, but it does contribute. If you designate the Celtics, Bulls, Heat, Hawks, Thunder, Lakers, Spurs, Mavs, and Hornets (all teams with a winning percent greater than .600) as “elite teams” an analysis of the strength of schedule becomes slightly more significant. In the Magic’s first 26 games, they played one of the “elite teams” 6 times, constituting 23% of their games. In their most recent 26 game stretch, the Magic have played an elite team 10 times (39% of their games). If you do the reverse analysis and look at the number of games played against the bottom of the league (say the worst 10 teams: Nets, Raptors, Cavs, Wizards, T-Wolves, Kings, Pistons, Clippers, and Bucks), you find that the Magic played more poor teams (11) before the trade than after (8). I believe this imbalance in their schedule, when it comes to elite and abysmal teams, is the main factor in why the post-trade Magic have the same record as the pre-trade Magic.

From what we’ve seen, I feel confident in saying that the Magic, before their trade, were a mediocre team compared to their 2010 and 2009 versions. They defended well, and pumped up their record courtesy of an easier schedule. The post-trade Magic are much improved, yet, have been held back by a tougher schedule to date. All this leads me to believe that the Magic are, in fact, no longer an elite team. They are still a good team, and are better than they were earlier this year. It is possible that they improve over the home stretch, but if the playoffs were to start today, I wouldn’t put any money on them advancing to the Conference Finals. At this point, it would be questionable whether they are even able to beat an Atlanta team whom they absolutely massacred in last year’s playoffs. It isn’t time to abandon ship in Orlando, but unless their defense picks things up a bit, it certainly is time to start tempering expectations.