Archive for ‘Trades’

March 3, 2011

Underrated: Chauncey Billups’ (Future) Production for the Knicks

by Jeeves

It’s Thursday, so time for something overrated or underrated


The big news preceding the end of the trading deadline, of course, was that after an endless dance, the Nuggets finally traded Carmelo Anthony to the Knicks. There was much rejoicing and a surprising amount of hand wringing after the trade was consummated. Due to the deluge of media coverage leading up to the trade, much of the focus was placed on Carmelo Anthony. The fact that Chauncey Billups was included in the trade was a mere afterthought.

The funny thing is that Chauncey may end up making a larger impact on the Knicks  this season than Carmelo. I’m not trying to argue that Chauncey is better than Carmelo or that he’s even close to being the player Carmelo is. I just think that as Amare and Carmelo try to mesh their high usage games together, that Chauncey will prove to be exceedingly valuable to the Knicks.

I realize it has been an extremely small sample size but their performance has shown this to some degree so far. Chauncey’s production, so far, has been far, far more efficient than Carmelo’s. I realize that Carmelo has produced more in terms of sheer numbers, but there is something to be said about producing efficiently. I’ll pose this hypothetical: Would you rather have a player shoot 6/8 from the field (2/2 from 3pt and 5-5 FT) for a total of 20 points or 8/23 from the field (1/3 from 3pt and 6-6 FT) for a total of 23 points. Yeah, 23 points is more than 20, but I’d much rather have a player put up that first stat line.

In any case, whatever your views on efficiency, it’s undeniable that Chauncey has been a more efficient offensive player. In his 4 games so far (he missed one with a thigh bruise), he’s scored 93 points while taking 49 attempts from the field; that works out to 1.9 pts per field goal attempt. That’s a pretty good number. If you factor in turnovers and look at points per possession, that number falls a little to 1.6, still pretty good. Carmelo on the other hand has scored 130 points but has needed 111 field goal attempts to reach that total, which is 1.2 pts per field goal attempt. His points per possession works out to 1.07. Another way to look at it, is at that rate Chauncey would score 160 points using 100 possessions whereas Carmelo would only score 107 points, using 100 possessions. It’s a little abstract to think of it like that, but it is a fairly significant difference. Another way to look at it is that league average points per field goal attempt is 1.2, the same as Carmelo and league average points per possession is 1.06, almost the same as Carmelo. In that view, Carmelo is producing at a rate no better than league average.

Carmelo has the superior per game statistics and the higher bulk totals due to playing an extra game and also playing more minutes that Chauncey. Another way to view things on a more level field is to look at their per 36 minutes stats. Per 36 minutes, Chauncey has averaged 25.8 ppg, 4.7 rpg, and 6.6 apg. Carmelo on the other hand has averaged 25.6/4.7/2.4. There’s no arguing here that Chauncey has provided more output per 36 minutes. He’s outscored Carmelo, while providing the same number of rebounds (from the point guard position!!) and nearly tripling Carmelo’s assists.

I think part of Chauncey’s efficiency dominance is attributable to 3 things. First, Carmelo is a great scorer, but not an efficient one. Second, Carmelo, who has gotten used to dominating the ball since Iverson was traded, has to learn to share the rock with Amare. Finally, I think the D’Antoni offense generally benefits point guard play.

So as I said, I’m not trying to convince anyone that Chauncey is better than Carmelo. I am trying to say that his production so far has been underrated and that his production moving forward will also likely be underrated. There’s extreme value in efficiency, which is something Chauncey has in spades when compared to Melo.

February 10, 2011

Trade-a-palooza: Eastern Conference

by Jeeves

The NBA’s trade deadline is fast approaching. In the next couple weeks, leading up to the 24th, teams positioned for the playoffs will look to strengthen their squads while other teams will try and stockpile assets and rid themselves of salary. I’ve gone ahead and brainstormed some possible trades so check them out below.

A few things to note:

I focused on trades between playoff contenders and non-contenders. It’s hard to come up with a trade where two teams change up their rotations while still trying to make the playoffs. This also means that if I made a trade between a contender and a fringe contender (eg Boston and Indiana) or two fringe contenders I made the assumption one team was gearing up for the stretch run while the other was willing to punt for salary relief/assets. I also only looked at two team trades; I didn’t want to get too fancy. So feel free to dismiss these trades or to propose better ones; I’m all ears. I’ve put *** by the trades I particularly liked.

Celtics

Anthony Parker or Jamario Moon for Marquis Daniels and Semih Erden

The Celtics do not have a lot of assets, so they’re a tough team to work a trade for. One thing that they do need is a back-up SF now that Daniels is out with his spinal cord bruise. The Cavs do this because at this point they are desperate for talent and Erden is fringey enough to take a look at. Plus the Celts and Cavs could do this trade with the understanding that the Cavs buy-out Daniels when he’s healthy and he can then just resign with the Celtics.

***Tracy McGrady and Ben Wallace for Marquis Daniels and Semih Erden

This trade gives the Celtics a little more roster flexibility. They can drop T-Mac in at PG or SF and Wallace gives them another big body to throw at Dwight. The Pistons do this to dump a little salary and pick up Erden. The question is, are the Celtics worried about T-Mac and his inability to advance past the 1st round? Yah, probably not.

James Posey for Jermaine O’Neal and Erden

I would love for this to happen just so we can get O’Neal back on the Pacers and Posey back on the Celtics. I will always associate those two players with those two teams. Again, Boston needs a small forward and it’s possible that management thinks Posey can find the effectiveness he’s lost since leaving Boston. Indy does this for the same reason as the Detroit trade above. Save some cash and get Erden. Plus there’s always the chance that O’Neal is done and his contract gets covered by insurance.

Grant Hill for Marquis Daniels and  Semih Erden

This would be the best trade for the Celtics. If it were to happen, it means that Phoenix could not find a more attractive offer elsewhere. Suns do this to try to get some value (Erden) out of Hill’s expiring contract, and as a way to give him a shot at a title.

Knicks

Nazr Mohammed and Eduardo Najera for Eddy Curry

I’m working this trade from the view point that the Knicks want to do as much damage as possible in this year’s playoffs. To do that, they need to get some size in the middle to help out Amare. Mohammed (and Najera for that matter) provide the size they need. This would preclude them from getting Melo in the off-season since only Mohammed’s contract expires, and therefore a reason why this trade probably wouldn’t happen, but it does make them better in the near term. Najera’s salary also comes off the books in time to go after Chris Paul and Dwight Howard, so that’s a plus. The Bobcats take on extra salary for the end of this season, but then see Curry’s larger salary come off of the books. MJ is trying to save money in Charlotte while also squeezing out a playoff appearance; this trade will achieve the former.

Jeff Foster and Dahntay Jones for Curry

The same reasoning as above can be carried down here, except instead of Najera at power forward you get Jones a shooting guard. He could actually play some back up minutes as nobody behind Fields (on the ESPN depth chart) has a pulse. This move doesn’t do much for Indy except save $2.5 mil next season. Since Indiana is going for the playoffs it probably wouldn’t happen, but remember I’m working under the premise that one team is going for it while the other team in the trade is calling it quits.

***Chris Kaman for Curry

This trade is perhaps the most interesting one that I’ve proposed so far. Kaman (when he gets healthy) provides a massive improvement for the Knicks. His large salary also clears in time for the 2012 free agent class of Paul and Howard. The Clippers on the other hand get a massive expiring which could allow them to enter the Melo sweepstakes if they feel so inclined. Worst comes to worst, Donald Sterling saves some money and we all know he loves doing that.

***Beno Udrih, Samuel Dalembert, Jermaine Taylor for Raymond Felton and Curry

This is kind of a jackpot for New York; let me explain. Beno represents an upgrade (to me) at PG. He shoots a much better percentage and though his assists are low, but I’m sure in D’Antoni’s offense those numbers will go up. Dalembert is an obvious upgrade over Mozgov at center. Dalembert is also a larger expiring contract than Eddy Curry which will give them that much more room for Melo. Beno’s salary plus Taylor’s salary both expire by 2012 and add up to more than Felton’s salary meaning if they whiff on Melo they can try again in 2012. The Kings end of this trade is a bit iffier. New York would have to throw in some sort of pick to make it worthwhile, which means the Kings would get their, I dunno, 2020 draft pick. I guess the fact of the matter is they save money, in terms of salary, this season and next season by doing this trade, which is a bit of a boon as the Maloof’s are in financial trouble.

76ers

Nazr Mohammed and Stephen Jackson for Jason Kapono and Andres Nocioni

While the Sixers have found some success playing a small lineup with Brand at center, they still need the size Mohammed offers when they play some of the larger teams in the league. They could also use an upgrade at SG as they have Jodie Meeks starting. The Bobcats don’t get much in terms of talent in this trade; Kapono has barely played and Noc is a nice effort guy who can swing between the forward positions. It does get them out of Captain Jack’s 3-year contract, which saves them some coin. The 76ers are already fairly tied up with Brand and Iguodala’s contract, so I don’t see picking up Jackson as ruining all that much flexibility. Plus, like I said, I’m looking near term rather than long term.

Bulls

Anthony Morrow for Brian Scalabrine, JJ, Bogans, (pick)

Plain and simple, the Bulls need a SG. It’s sad because Brewer and Korver aren’t terrible, but Thibs for some reason insists on starting Bogans who blows, plain and simple. Unfortunately, the Bulls don’t have much in the way of assets, at least one’s they’d be willing to give up. They need to hold onto Taj as Noah and Boozer haven’t been the picture’s of health in their careers so far. I think the Bulls value Asik more than others, so he doesn’t help. That leaves Bogans (who blows), James Johnson who has a rare blend of athleticism and size though is a project and two picks (their own and a lottery ticket from Charlotte). So in this instance, the Bulls offer their package which helps the Nets clear cap room if they change their minds about Melo. Morrow is the 2-guard with range that the Bulls need.

Courtney Lee and exception for Bogans, JJ, pick

Same story here. The Rockets do this to pick up the pick(s) as they continue to stockpile assets.

OJ Mayo for Scal, Bogans, JJ, (pick)

The Grizzlies just cut bait with Mayo and recoup a pick or two. It’s questionable whether the Bulls would take Mayo with his recent character issues. In the past, Bulls management has been unwilling to do so.

Pacers

Stephen Jackson for James Posey and Brandon Rush

So remember when I said, all these trades help one team in the playoff push and one team in salary relief/assets? Well this is another one of those. The Bobcats get out from that third year on Jackson’s contract and the Pacers get 2 SGs to play around with this year and have Jackson for when Dunleavy’s contract expires (end of this season).

***Ben Gordon and Tayshaun Prince for James Posey, Mike Dunleavy, and Paul George

This trade is exciting, I’m not going to lie. The Pacers now have a nice athletic rotation at SG/SF between Gordon, Prince, and Granger. If that’s too overwhelming, they can also flip Prince’s expiring to fill a greater need. Meanwhile, the Pistons get out from under Gordon’s contract. It would be one thing if he was their starter, but $11 million is too much money for 27 minutes a game. Dunleavy’s contract expires this year so the Pistons aren’t losing out by swapping Prince. As I said they kiss Gordon’s contract goodbye and they get Paul George who I like and think could be a good player.

Antohny Morrow, Travis Outlaw, Damion James, Ben Uzoh for TJ Ford and James Posey

There’s a lot in this trade. Morrow is an upgrade at SG for the Pacers. They perhaps can help Outlaw become productive again. James and Uzoh are just filler. Ford is a nice expiring for New Jersey and Posey’s two year deal is much more palatable than Outlaw’s 5-year deal.

***Leandro Barbosa for Ford

This is an expiring for expiring swap. Ford makes more which gets the Raptors that much more cap room; Barbosa is an upgrade for the Pacers.

Kirk Hinrich for Posey

The Wizards save some money over the next two years, while the Pacers get the better player. Both players contracts expire after next season.

Bucks

***Gerald Wallace and Boris Diaw for Michael Redd

The Bucks aren’t going anywhere anytime soon after all those contracts they handed out, so they might as well go all in to realize their ceiling as a middling playoff team. With that in mind, they trade Michael Redd’s massive expiring contract ($18 million). They get an upgrade at PF in Diaw and have a SG/SF rotation of Maggette, Wallace, and Salmons.

Antawn Jamison, Boobie Gibson, Exception for Michael Redd, Corey Magette

The Bucks get a big upgrade at PF and a nice back up in Gibson. The Cavs save a boatload of money in the near term and get back a player with a pulse. Magette become their best player, instantly and though his contract is 3 years, they end up saving money over that span by trading both Jamison and Gibson.

Troy Murphy and Anthony Morrow for Michael Redd

To be honest, I’m not sure how in love New Jersey is with Morrow which is why I keep including him in these trades, plus, he’s interesting. The Bucks get an upgrade at SG and Murphy may be able to contribute at PF. Murphy’s $11 mil deal is done at the end of the year so they still get some money off the books. The Nets on the other hand get Michael Redd’s Expiring Contract.

Elton Brand and Thad Young for Redd and CDR

Like I said before, the Bucks seem pretty locked in with all the contracts they gave out. This just solidifies them being locked in for the next 3 years. Brand’s fat contract and revived play will hugely upgrade PF, while Thad Young will provide solid rotation play. The Sixers get some breathing room under the cap and CDR because he’s a nice player. The Sixers may be upset about losing Young, but it’s probably worth it to be rid of Brand. His contract feels like a ticking time bomb to me.

Samuel Dalembert and Beno Udrih for Redd

Two upgrades for the Bucks and Redd saves the Kings so much money that the Maloof’s instantly blow half of the savings on a bender in Vegas.

Heat

No assets therefore no trades.

Hawks

Mo Williams for Mike Bibby and Jeff Teague, Mo Evans

The Hawks get an upgrade at the point while the Cavs save some money and get something interesting in the form of Jeff Teague

Magic

They have fat contracts that are basically untradeable, unless someone has a change of heart and desperately want Hedo.

Bobcats

It’s tough to find a trade that makes them better, sorry MJ

The Western Conference will come out in a day or two.