Posts tagged ‘Deron Williams’

February 24, 2011

Overrated: Rajon Rondo Claim to Best PG in the NBA

by Jeeves

Flowchart courtesy of Shamsports

After a 1 week hiatus, overrated/underrated is back. This week we’re looking at Rajon Rondo

As always, let’s get my biases out front and center. I’m a big Bulls fan, thus I love Derrick Rose.

There’s a definite rift between Rose and Rondo both on the court and amongst their proponents in the media. Even with my adoration of Rose, I’ve never fully understood the fawning over Rondo. It’s quite possible that I’m missing something, but to me he is merely a very good point guard. He doesn’t strike me as “in the conversation” for best point guard in the league.

The flow chart above sums up one of my main complaints about Rondo. I realize a point guard needs to initiate the offense, but it’s detrimental if that’s all the point guard can do. I like my point guard to control the offense while also maintaining the ability to create something on his own. Simply racking up assists isn’t enough for me and racking up assists seems to be Rondo’s greatest claim to fame.

Don’t get me wrong, he’s a good passer and has great vision, but he has three teammates that are perfect for amassing large assist totals. Pierce, Allen and KG are all great jump shooters and their games conflate to inflate Rondo’s stats. Large parts of the Celtics’ offense is predicated on Allen running off of screens catching the ball and shooting immediately or KG catching the ball at the elbow and firing an 18 footer. They do all the work to get open, and all Rondo has to do is hit the open man for the assist. Much as the D’Antoni offense is known for inflating offensive statistics, I think the (Real) Big Three in Boston have that affect on assist totals.

If inflated assist totals were my only issue with Rondo’s game, I’d put him up there with the best PG’s and I wouldn’t be writing this post, but that’s just my opening salvo. His lack of a reliable jump shot is another huge flaw in his game. Rondo is a great finisher at the rim. He makes 2/3 of his 4.2 shots a game at the rim; that’s really good. If you move him away from there, though, he becomes a sieve on offense. He shoots 34% from less than ten feet (excluding at the rim shots) and 28% from 10-15 feet. His 16-23 foot shooting is a bit better (41%), I assume, because defenses sag off of him. Rondo just has no mid range game at all. The large knock on Rose’s game, coming into the league, was that he didn’t have a jump shot; to this day announcers are still surprised at his ability to knock down a 12 footer. Despite this widely acknowledged flaw, he has never shot worse from <10 to 15 feet as Rondo is currently shooting in his 5th year in the league. Why isn’t Rondo’s lack of a jumper a bigger talking point?

Rondo’s lack of shooting ability means defenses can sag off of him. It means that he doesn’t get rushed with double teams to get the ball out of his hands. Even with this amount of space his usage is a low, 17.96, yet his turnover rate is a sky high 26.63 (Rose for comparison is at 31.75 and 13.3). Rondo has the 6th highest turnover rate in the league. He doesn’t face much defensive pressure, yet he still racks up 4 TO’s a game.

We haven’t even touched upon his free throw shooting yet. It’s kind of incredible; for as reluctant as he is to shoot, he is even more reluctant to step to the free throw line. His FTA per game have cratered 2.0 this season, and of those two, he usually splits the pair (55% from the line). He is in the bottom 20 (of players who get 15+ mpg) in terms of FT% behind such luminaries as Shaquille O’Neal and Dwight Howard. Point guards need to be able to draw fouls. They need to be able to draw big men over while driving in order to free up passing lanes. Rondo, as his game is constructed, is completely missing this facet to his game. I’ll compare him, yet again, to Rose. Derrick saw some heat in the press for avoiding contact and selling out for the layup rather than accepting contact. Seeing all the articles chiding him for this, one would think he struggled to get to the line as well, yet he averages 6.2 free throws a game. He isn’t quite Lebron James in that department, but his 6.2 a game is good for 15th in the league and 2nd overall at the point guard position (behind Deron Williams).

Please don’t read this and think that I don’t see any value in Rondo. I think Rajon Rondo is a very good player. I think he’s a very good point guard and a pretty damn good match for the Boston Celtics. I also just happen to think that he is rather overrated for the amount of production he brings to the table. I think the one facet of his offensive game that is elite is his assists totals, and even those are inflated. And, hell, just for the sake of comparison,

Rondo’s 3rd season: 8.2 assists per game.

Rose’s 3rd season (to date): 8.2 assists per game.

I realize some of you would still choose Rondo as the PG to start your team, but for me, give me a point guard that can shoot. Give me a point guard that shoots free throws, hell, until Chris Paul proves his knee his healthy, just give me Derrick Rose.

Advertisements
February 23, 2011

Williams Trade Brings up Lots of Questions

by Jeeves

As I’m sure you’ve all heard, Deron Williams was traded to the Nets (or Nyets, if you prefer). I’m not going to break this one down like I did the ‘Melo trade (check our Zach Lowe for that), but I do want to address some of the questions this trade brings up.

1) Would the Nets really trade for Williams without a stipulation that he sign an extension?

At best, I would put Williams resigning with the Nets at 50-50. He has no personal ties to the area being, from Texas and playing college ball at Illinois, the Nets are a terrible team, and, well, for now, they’re in New Jersey. It doesn’t seem like there’s much to keep Deron there instead of bolting come 2012. There are two reasons he may stay. First, with the new CBA, it may be unpalatable for him to leave. The new CBA may heavily stack things in favor of teams resigning their own free agents. The second reason is also tied to the CBA. The Nyets and Williams may be able to lure a second free agent, ahem…Dwight Howard. Suddenly you have a way better version of the Kidd-Martin pairing of the Nets recent glory years.

2) So it’s possible the Nets could get nothing out of this deal come 2012?

It’s quite possible. The way in which the media has painted owner Mikhail Prokhorov is that of a risk taker. So, as far as I can tell, he took a risk. He knows its easier to retain players than to woo them on the open market. He knows his Nets team sucks. He knows that star players shape NBA teams. He didn’t have to make this move, but it does, at least, seem like a reasonable gamble. If Williams leaves, and they don’t sign a different 2012 free agent, they’ll be back to where they are now.

3) What does this say about Williams that the Jazz dropped him so quickly?

Well, clearly something went down that hasn’t been reported. We just had Sloan up and quit after 20+ years on the sidelines, due, we’re told, mostly to Williams. So did Williams do something so atrocious during the game against the Bulls that it made Sloan want to leave and force management to seek a trade or has he done something in the intervening days? Something is rotten in the state of Utah.

4) Will whatever baggage Williams bring play in New Jersey?

Your guess is as good as mine.

5) When was the last time we saw a huge NBA trade with no media buildup?

I’m having trouble comping up with a comparable trade. The Gasol trade was surprising, I suppose, but in a different way. He was clearly on the block, but I don’t recall (I may be wrong here) much buildup about him going to the Lakers. 3 years ago, though, is a loooong time in terms of the 24 hour news cycle that we now have. This one is pretty shocking, the Jazz traded a franchise player, under contract and I didn’t hear a peep about the possibility.

6) Does Sloan come back now?

I doubt it. He rode his tractor into the sunset and I think he’ll remain retired for at least this season. I read that he also felt undermined by management, so perhaps Williams wasn’t the only issue.

February 14, 2011

A Boon to the Rose-for-MVP Crowd

by Jeeves

 

The Bulls finished up their 5-game West Coast swing. They may not have proved themselves to be road warriors, but they did at least confirm that they can beat good teams in their buildings. The 3-2 record was what I was expecting from the Bulls, but they didn’t quite arrive there in the manner that I would have guessed. They dropped a couple winnable games in the middle at Golden State and Portland. I suppose this served as a wake up call, as they won fairly impressively in what figured to be the two hardest games of the trip at Utah and at New Orleans.

Those last two games, against Deron Williams and the Jazz and Chris Paul and the Hornets combined with the Bulls/Rose’s performance against Rajon Rondo and the Celtics on January 8th has boosted both Rose’s candidacy as best PG in the game and MVP of the season. The following table, while not encapsulating every facet of the game, sums things up nicely:

Pts Ast Reb ORtg DRtg NetRtg Team Score
Jan 8
Rose 36 2 5 125 99 +26 90
Rondo 13 8 5 106 95 +11 79
Feb 9
Rose 29 7 3 115 102 +13 91
Williams 11 12 4 83 109 -26 86
Feb 12
Rose 23 6 4 114 103 +11 97
Paul 15 6 2 103 110 -7 88

(ORtg is a stat that tries to estimate points produced per 100 possessions. DRtg does the same but for points allowed. If you subtract the DRtg from ORtg you get the Net figure.)

As the chart shows, Rose dominated his match-ups against the other top tier point guards. He, as expected, played excellently on offense (so you have an idea, the 10th best ORtg in the NBA is 122.0), even against Rondo where he had his best offensive night. He also played really well on defense (10th best ORtg is 99.6 and the stat skews towards bigs), which, if you believe Nicolas Batum, is an area that Rose is no good at.

I think it is evident that in these games Rose put forth just that much more concentration and effort. He is a very competitive person, and I’m sure he wants to be considered the best PG (if not best player) in the NBA, which led to such spectacular performances. The thing to keep in mind is that though these three games (all in a close time span) are impressive, they do not necessitate a significantly large sample size. To put it another way, where I, a Bulls fan, may use these numbers to support a case for Rose as the best PG or MVP worthy, a Celtics fan may use the first two match-ups where Rondo outperformed Rose (according to NetRtg). What I think we can take out of all of this, is that there’s no denying that Rose is one of the best PG’s in the league and there is no denying that he is a serious MVP candidate. Let’s see how the rest of the season plays out, before we crown him.