Posts tagged ‘Karl Malone’

February 3, 2011

Overrated: Amare Stoudemire’s MVP Chances

by Jeeves

It’s Thursday, so it’s time to look at something that’s underrated or overrated

Bottom line, Amare Stoudemire is not going to be the MVP.

Before I get into things, I want to say that I think Amare is a pretty darn good player. He has surpassed my expectations and proven false the idea that 50% (exaggeration alert) of his production was due to Steve Nash. With that out of the way, I think it is farcical that he is being touted as an MVP candidate. Let me lay it out in different words; the idea that Amare is the MVP of the National Basketball Association is ABSURD!

There are a number of ways to attack his MVP case, and well, I guess I’ll start with his production. The case for Amare as MVP, I suppose, begins with his scoring average; it is, after all, his flashiest stat. As of today, he is averaging 26.2 points per game, which is good for 2nd in the league behind Kevin Durant. I’ll admit, 2nd on the leaderboard is fairly high, but is it necessarily indicative of MVP play?If you look at Amare’s number throughout his career, this is by no means his best statistical season. I will point you to 2004-2005 when Amare averaged 26.0 ppg on 16.7 shots per game with a 56% shooting percentage and 8.9 rebound per game; compare that to this year, where Amare is averaging 26.2 points per game on 19.5 shots per game with a 50% shooting percentage and 8.8 rebounds per game. Is this year really that much more impressive that 04-05? I would argue that it is significantly less impressive. Amare is taking nearly 2 extra shots a game (with an extra turnover per game thrown in) to average a whopping .2 ppg more. If everyone is so enamored with Amare as MVP this year why wasn’t there more momentum behind him then? He finished a distant 9th in the voting that year; he was a mere after thought. Yes, Steve Nash won the MVP that year, but it seems that Stoudemire didn’t even dent the national consciousness.

This begs the question, if Amare’s season to date is no better than a number of his previous seasons, what has changed to make 2 out of 6 SI writers choose him as their half season MVP’s and 5 of 6 put him amongst their top 5? It seems the only difference is that Steve and Farouq, taxi drivers in NYC, are talking up his game this year. In a handful of pieces defending Amare as an MVP candidate, I’ve read people list, “He’s revitalized basketball in the city of New York!” as a reason. The absurdity of that notion is off the charts. I agree that the whole of New York is talking about Amare, but tell me, pleeease, tell me, when the hell did name recognition in New York City become a legitimate MVP attribute? I think it’s cool and neat that the Knicks are semi-relevant again after being run into the ground by Isaiah and James Dolan, but have we really sunk to level that general word of mouth in NYC is a legitimate barometer of MVP relevancy? Is that what we’re at? I apologize for all the rhetorical questions, but I just can’t wrap my head around it. I don’t know why Amare doing what he’s done for a formerly moribund Knicks team is any different than if he did it for say, the Pistons or better yet what he did do for Phoenix.

Stats aside, the historical precedent is working strongly against Amare. If you want the voters to vote for you, you need your team to win at least 50 games. 50+ wins and an MVP go nearly hand in hand. Only 7 people have won an MVP with less than 50 wins for their team (excluding Karl Malone in the lock-out year). Those players are Moses Malone (twice), Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Bob McAdoo, Wilt Chamberlain, Bob Petit, Bill Russell, and Bob Cousy. That’s it. To put it another way, unless your last name is Malone, no one in 35 years has won an MVP without their team winning 50 games. As I type this, the Knicks are 25-23 which puts them on pace for a much improved 42 wins. Even if, in your heart of hearts, you think Amare deserves the MVP because the guy who drove you home from LaGuardia talked about him non-stop, the Knicks’ record and Amare’s inability to elevate them to a better winning percentage basically precludes him from consideration. I recommend focusing your attention instead upon the likes of  Dwight, Dirk, Derrick, or LeBron.


February 2, 2011

Kobe Bryant and the Dominique Wilkins Game

by Jeeves

The other night against the Celtics, Kobe put up a fairly interesting stat line, one which I didn’t notice until now. For the game, (in the money stats) he had 41 pts, 0 ast, and 3 reb. The 41 points, while a high number, is clearly nothing out of the ordinary for Mamba. The lack of assists and rebounds, though, is what caught my eye. This line brought me over to the play index at basketball-reference, as I am apt to do, to see just how uncommon that game was.

I initially punched in (a minimum of) 40 points and zero assists as that was what caught my eye off the bat. Unfortunately, that search yielded far more results than I expected; 60 to be specific (since the beginning of the 1986 season, as the play index does not go farther back in time). Sunday’s game was actually Kobe’s third of at least 40 points with 0 assists; it pulled him into a first place tie with Patrick Ewing, Karl Malone, Dirk Nowitzki, and Glen Rice. So while 40 points with 0 assists is pretty rare, it isn’t as rare as I thought.

So I added in the rebounding component just to see what came out. With a set maximum of 5 rebounds, that list was pruned down to 14, which I think is something worth writing about. Kobe joined 13 others (nobody has been able to repeat the feat), the most recent of which was Michael Redd when he went off for a stunning 57-2-0 against the Jazz in 2006. Redd’s game is also of note, due to the fact that no one has scored more than his 57 without recording an assist (since 1986, which, again, is as far as the play index covers).

I’m unsure what to make of Kobe’s stat line in the grander scheme of things. Clearly, it’s a fairly rare achievement; one the NBA hasn’t seen in 5 years, yet I feel it would be foolish to say that his stat line is emblematic of the reason why the Lakers lost on Sunday. Yes, it makes for a nice rip job on Kobe, he hogs the ball and ices out his teammates which allows the Lakers to keep things fairly close, but it is disingenuous. In Kobe’s other two 40+ point, 0 assist games, his team was victorious, so perhaps there is no greater narrative and the meaning (but what does it mean???) to take out of it all is Kobe had himself an interesting game.

————————————————————

My ruminations over at the play index also helped me uncover what I will refer to from now on as the Dominique Wilkins Game. The Dominique Wilkins game is one where a player scores at least 35 points and fails to record an assist. ‘Nique is the all-time leader with 14(!) such games. I think it’s safe to say that he had at least another one of those games in his first 4 seasons which, unfortunately, aren’t covered in the Play Index. The Dominique Wilkins game has happened far more often (207 times since ’86) so here’s hoping I get to one day soon write a post about someone posting a Dominique Wilkins game.